Performance to Goals
YTD: — Trials YTD: — Conversions: —Revenue — Cash Received vs Goal
Stripe payouts · net of all fees & refunds · months with data only
New Trials vs Goal
Trial starts per month · current month in-progress
Conversions vs Goal
Grouped by trial-start month · each bar = conversions from that cohort · a month does not close until 14 days into the next month
Full Year: Actual vs Goal vs Forecast
Jan–current = cash received · remaining = forecast net · goal line = 2026 budget
Goal line = the 2026 annual budget set at the start of the year. We are still planning to goal/budget for now. Forecast = our running model, updated as new campaign plans and conversion data come in — it will diverge from budget as the year progresses. In quarterly meetings Toni and Taylor will decide whether to shift to rolling forecast-based spending. The effect would be more cash available to deploy, but we need more data before spending money we may not make.
Trial Cohorts & Conversion
Blended: —
Conversion rate legend:
≥ 50%
35–49%
< 35%
In Progress
Context: Industry benchmark for free-to-paid conversion is 30–40%. Dec/Jan cohorts skew higher (early adopters, high intent) and are not representative of steady-state performance. Thresholds will be adjusted as we accumulate more data and experiment with acquisition channels.
Context: Industry benchmark for free-to-paid conversion is 30–40%. Dec/Jan cohorts skew higher (early adopters, high intent) and are not representative of steady-state performance. Thresholds will be adjusted as we accumulate more data and experiment with acquisition channels.
Trial Cohorts — by Month (click to expand plan details)
Active = converted & paying · Past Due = payment failed · Cancelled in Trial = quit before paying · Live Trial = still in free window
| Month | Plan | Interval | Avg $/sub | Trial Starts | Active | Past Due | Canc. in Trial | Live Trial | Conv. Rate | Cohort |
|---|
Membership Status & Breakdown
Live viewAnnual Renewal Schedule ▶ Show
Annual Renewal Performance by Month
Actual renewal rate for legacy annual subs by cohort month · Rate = renewed ÷ (renewed + cancelled)
Revenue Forecast Model — Mar through Nov 2026
Full math · net after Stripe & Circle · excl. Supercast & refunds800 trials/mo base · 1,200 Mar, May, Jun & Jul 🚀
50% trial→paid · 50% mo / 50% ann split · 5% mo churn · 70% ann renewal
14-day trial: 50% charge same month · 50% charge following month
New mo: $10.23 · New ann: $101.23/yr · Legacy mo: $8.42 · Legacy ann: actual Stripe amounts by cohort
⚠ Supercast TBD · ⚠ Refunds excluded
Forecast Model — Full Math▶ expand
Click header to expand · Rows grouped: Actions → Subscriber counts → Revenue lines → Fee deductions → Net · 🚀 = campaign month